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Survey shows IC growth for 1H 2006

Posted by inet - 2005-10-12

Amid projected market share gains for Samsung, SanDisk and TI, the semiconductor industry is projected to see a modest improvement in growth for the first half of 2006, according to a new survey from ChangeWave Research.
One-third (33 percent) of semiconductor industry respondents believe the industry will experience double-digit growth for first half of 2006, up 4 points over the survey results in June, according to ChangeWave (Rockville, Md.). ChangeWave, a subsidiary of Phillips Investment Resources LLC, identifies and quantifies "change" in industries and companies through surveying a network of thousands of business executives and professionals working in more than 20 industries.

“The consumer marketplace still looks to be the key driver of the semi industry for the next six months, but that’s down 10 points since June,” according to the new survey. “The communications marketplace, on the other hand, is up 10 points.”

According to the survey, the best performing chip segments are communication chips for cellular phones (Net Difference Score = +40), flash memory (+32), and RFID chips (+27). The worst performing chip segments are memories (-20), logic/programmable chips (-19) and microprocessors (-15).

One-in-five respondents believe fab capacity utilization will remain tight at 90 percent — a 1-point increase since June, while the percentage reporting “softer” fab capacity (less than 75 percent) dropped 6 points, according to the survey.

Nearly three-in-four (73 percent) see an increase in capital spending on new fab capacity over the next 12 months, up 10 points more than in June.

Meanwhile, Texas Instruments Inc. (Net Difference Score = +29) tops the list of chip vendors that respondents think will gain market share over the next six months.

“Samsung (+27) also looks to do well, as does SanDisk (+16) which registered one of the biggest improvements since June,” according to the survey. “IBM (Net Difference Score -8) also improved over its poor June survey showing, but is still seen as the company most likely to lose market share. Analog Devices (-6) also did poorly, as did Linear Technology (-3), which declined the most since our June survey.”

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