A research note put out by Lehman Brothers today suggests that a mobile WiMax standard may be "set in early 2006" yielding trials in the second half of 2006 and on into 2007.
The analysts forecast the timelime for mobile WiMax after a customer meeting with equipment maker Alvarion Ltd.
"With respect to upcoming technology timelines, Alvarion estimates the 802.16e standard [the core of Mobile WiMax] will be certified in the first quarter of 2006 with demo products available in 2006," write wireless equipment analysts Jeff Kvaal and Tim Luke in the note.
This is expected to lead to trials in 2007 with commercial deployments in 2008
The ratification of the 802.16e standard is the first big step on the road to mobile WiMax. Folks at the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. (IEEE) were suggesting that it would be done towards the end of September, but the trail went a little cold after that.
Of course, interoperability testing by the WiMAX Forum also takes time. The first certified fixed WiMax (802.16d) products aren't now expected before the end of this year or on into the next.